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Practitioner · Course 2: Replenishment · Lesson 2 of 5

Setting a replenishment trigger from a style's own weekly sales rate

Level: PractitionerTime: 45 minutesOrder used: Order A's own T-shirt style, made by Delta Garments for Northline ApparelTool: Replenishment worksheet
For a factory-side merchandiser or planner at a business such as Delta Garments, setting the stock point that triggers a replenishment order for an already-selling export style. Lesson 2.1 is useful background, not required.
FactoryDelta Garments, export, Make to Order
BuyerNorthline Apparel, sourcing Order A's T-shirt
StyleOrder A's own basic T-shirt, already confirmed as a replenishment candidate
Lead time to replenish6 weeks from a confirmed reorder to delivery
What this lesson setsThe stock level, the reorder point, that must trigger the next order
Not set hereHow large that next order should be (lesson 2.3)
02Opening

This page explains how to set the reorder point, the stock level that must trigger a replenishment order, from a style's own weekly sales rate and lead time, for a factory-side merchandiser managing an already-selling export style

This page explains the reorder point: the specific quantity of remaining stock at which a replenishment order must be placed, calculated from a style's own weekly sales rate and its own lead time. It is for a factory-side merchandiser or planner, such as one working with Delta Garments, once a style has already been confirmed as a replenishment candidate.

At work, once a style is confirmed as sellable and worth reordering, the next question is exactly when to place that reorder, not simply that a reorder will eventually be needed. Waiting until stock actually runs out before ordering more guarantees a stockout, since the replenishment order still takes its own lead time to arrive. Ordering far too early ties up money in stock that is not yet needed. This lesson gives you the method for calculating the reorder point: the stock level that, once reached, triggers the order at exactly the right time.

03Before you start

You need: lesson 2.1's replenishment-candidate check is useful background but not required.

By the end of this lesson you can:

  • state why a reorder point is set before stock runs out, not once it already has;
  • calculate a style's own weekly sales rate from its recorded sales history;
  • calculate a reorder point by combining the weekly sales rate with the lead time and a safety stock allowance;
  • read the replenishment worksheet's own reorder point column and say what triggers it;
  • avoid the common mistake of setting a reorder point from lead time alone, ignoring the style's own real sales rate.

Not covered here: confirming a style is a replenishment candidate in the first place (lesson 2.1); calculating how much to order once the reorder point is reached (lesson 2.3).

04Key terms
TermMeaning
Weekly sales rateThe average number of pieces of a style sold in one week, found by dividing total pieces sold by the number of weeks elapsed.
Lead timeThe total time from a confirmed order to the goods reaching their destination.
Reorder pointThe quantity of stock remaining at which a Make to Stock buyer places its next production order against the standing forecast.
Safety stockAn extra quantity of material planned on top of the bare requirement, to cover ordinary variation in a supplier's own delivery or a mill's own production run without stopping the cutting room.
Closing stockThe stock a retailer holds at the very end of a given week, after that week's own intake and sales are counted.
Stock coverThe number of weeks a brand's current stock is expected to last before it runs out, given its normal sales rate.
05Teaching
The rule

A reorder point is the stock level equal to expected sales across the lead time, plus a safety stock allowance, that must trigger the next order before stock runs out

The reorder point is not a guess; it is calculated. It equals the style's own weekly sales rate multiplied by the number of weeks its lead time takes, plus a safety stock allowance for ordinary variation in sales or delivery. Once remaining stock falls to this exact level, the reorder must be placed immediately, because the lead time is exactly how long the next order will take to arrive, and stock will keep selling during that whole wait. A reorder point calculated correctly gives a merchandiser one single number to watch on a stock report, rather than a judgement call repeated every week about whether stock still looks sufficient.

Weekly sales rate× lead time, weeks + Safety stockallowance = Reorder pointtrigger stock level
The reorder point equals expected sales across the lead time plus a safety stock allowance. Reaching this exact stock level, not zero stock, is what must trigger the next order.
What you meet in real life

The reorder point calculation is the same everywhere, but its two inputs, lead time and sales rate, differ sharply by side and by model

What can differThe shapes you will meetWhy it matters
Export, Make to Order factoryDelta Garments' own lead time for Order A's T-shirt reorder is 6 weeks, since fabric, cutting and sewing all restart for the new run.A longer lead time means the reorder point is reached earlier, while more stock still remains, than a shorter lead time would allow.
Domestic, Make to StockCedar & Co. often holds a shorter lead time on repeat styles it plans for continuously, so its reorder point sits closer to running out.A Make to Stock buyer's shorter, planned-for lead time lets it safely carry a lower reorder point than an export Make to Order style.
A style with a steady sales rateOrder A's T-shirt sells at a dependable, roughly constant weekly rate once past its early launch weeks.A steady rate makes the reorder point calculation reliable, since expected sales across the lead time are unlikely to swing sharply.
A style with a volatile sales rateA style whose weekly sales swing widely week to week, driven by promotions or weather.A volatile rate needs a larger safety stock allowance, since the plain average weekly rate alone understates the real risk of running out.
The case we follow

Delta Garments calculates the reorder point for Order A's T-shirt from its own confirmed weekly sales rate and 6-week lead time

Northline Apparel's Order A T-shirt has been confirmed as a replenishment candidate. Delta Garments, the factory, sets the reorder point: the exact stock level at which Northline Apparel must place its next order so that Delta Garments' own 6-week production lead time does not leave shops without stock.

QuestionWaiting until stock actually reaches zeroUsing a calculated reorder point
When is the next order placed?Only once shelves are already emptyWhile enough stock remains to cover the whole 6-week lead time
What happens during the 6-week wait?Shops run out immediately, since no stock was held back for the waitRemaining stock, sized to the lead time, covers ordinary sales during the wait
What if sales vary week to week?No allowance exists either wayThe safety stock allowance absorbs ordinary variation without a stockout
The worked number

Order A's T-shirt reorder point is 2,760 pieces, covering 6 weeks of expected sales plus a safety stock allowance

Delta Garments calculates the reorder point from the style's own confirmed weekly sales rate.

Style's own confirmed weekly sales rate: 400 pieces per week
Delta Garments' own lead time: 6 weeks
Expected sales across the lead time: 400 × 6 = 2,400 pieces
Safety stock allowance, 15% of expected sales: 2,400 × 0.15 = 360 pieces
Reorder point: 2,400 + 360 = 2,760 pieces
Expected sales, 6 weeks: 2,400 +360
The 2,760-piece reorder point is made up of 2,400 pieces of expected sales across the 6-week lead time plus a 360-piece safety stock allowance. Reaching this stock level, not waiting for stock to reach zero, is what must trigger Northline Apparel's next order.
The method

Four steps that calculate a reliable reorder point for any already-selling style

  1. Calculate the style's own confirmed weekly sales rate. Use recorded sales across a full, dependable period, not a single strong or weak week.
  2. Multiply the weekly sales rate by the lead time in weeks. This is the expected sales the remaining stock must cover during the whole wait for the next order.
  3. Add a safety stock allowance for ordinary variation. A steady-selling style needs a smaller allowance than a volatile one.
  4. Set the reorder point as the sum, and trigger the order the moment stock reaches it. Waiting past this point erodes the safety margin the calculation was built to provide.
The trap

A common mistake is setting a reorder point from the lead time alone, without multiplying it by the style's own real weekly sales rate

A common mistake is treating the lead time itself, in weeks, as if it were the reorder point, without multiplying it by how many pieces actually sell each of those weeks. If Delta Garments had set Order A's reorder point at a flat, round number unrelated to its real 400-piece weekly rate, a fast-selling week could push stock below the true point needed to cover the 6-week wait, well before the flat number was reached, resulting in a stockout the calculation was meant to prevent.

06In plain words

A reorder point is the exact amount of stock that must remain when the next order is placed, not a guess and not simply "when it runs low." It is calculated by multiplying a style's own real weekly sales rate by how many weeks its lead time takes, then adding a safety stock allowance for ordinary variation in sales. Once stock reaches this calculated level, the order must go in immediately, because the lead time is exactly how long the wait for new stock will be, and sales keep happening during that wait. Using the lead time alone, without the style's own real sales rate, produces a reorder point disconnected from how fast the style is actually selling.

07Quick check
  • The reorder point equals the weekly sales rate multiplied by the lead time in weeks, plus a safety stock allowance.
  • A longer lead time raises the reorder point, since more stock must cover a longer wait for the next order.
  • A volatile sales rate needs a larger safety stock allowance than a steady one.
  • Order A's T-shirt reorder point was calculated as 2,760 pieces: 2,400 pieces of expected sales plus a 360-piece allowance.
  • Waiting until stock reaches zero, instead of the calculated reorder point, guarantees a stockout during the lead time.
08Workplace scenario

Delta Garments' merchandiser must decide whether to alert Northline Apparel now that Order A's T-shirt stock has fallen to 2,800 pieces

Delta Garments tracks Northline Apparel's remaining stock of Order A's T-shirt on its own replenishment worksheet.

  • The calculated reorder point for this style is 2,760 pieces, based on a 400-piece weekly rate and a 6-week lead time.
  • Remaining stock has just fallen to 2,800 pieces, close to but not yet at the reorder point.
  • Delta Garments' own current production schedule has one open sewing slot next week that could take Northline Apparel's reorder if confirmed soon.
Delta Garments, merchandiser's note: "Remaining stock is 2,800 pieces against a 2,760-piece reorder point. There is one open sewing slot next week. Should we alert Northline Apparel to place the reorder now, or wait until stock actually reaches 2,760?"

Should Delta Garments alert Northline Apparel to place the reorder now, at 2,800 pieces, or wait until stock reaches the calculated 2,760-piece reorder point? Decide before you open the answer.

Show decision

Alert Northline Apparel now, at 2,800 pieces. Waiting the extra sales needed to reach exactly 2,760 pieces risks losing the one open sewing slot next week, and the small gap between 2,800 and 2,760 pieces is well within the reorder point's own safety stock allowance.

First, why a small early alert is not the same mistake as the lead-time-alone trap. The reorder point calculation itself is unchanged; Delta Garments is using its own genuine capacity information, the one open slot, to place the order slightly ahead of the exact trigger, not replacing the calculation with a guess.

Second, why losing the open slot would cost more than ordering a few days early. If the slot is lost, the next available slot could push the real lead time beyond 6 weeks, eroding the very safety stock allowance the reorder point was built to protect.

Delta Garments should alert Northline Apparel now to secure the open sewing slot, since remaining stock is already within the reorder point's own safety allowance. Lesson 2.3 covers exactly how much that next order should be.

09What it costs

Missing the reorder point and ordering only once stock reaches zero costs Order A's T-shirt about 3 weeks of lost sales

Framed in lost sales rather than a single penalty figure: the gap between a late order and a correctly timed one converts directly into stockout weeks.

Reorder point, correctly timed: 2,760 pieces, triggers the order with 6 weeks of cover remaining
Stock if the order is instead placed only at zero: 0 pieces, with the full 6-week lead time still to wait
Weeks of stockout created by ordering at zero instead of at the reorder point: about 3 weeks, once the safety-stock-covered weeks are used up
Pieces of lost sales across the stockout: 400 × 3 = 1,200 pieces
Lost sales value at Order A's own wholesale price, USD 8.00: 1,200 × 8.00 = USD 9,600.00

Ordering only once stock reaches zero, instead of at the calculated 2,760-piece reorder point, creates roughly 3 weeks of stockout once the safety stock is exhausted, worth approximately USD 9,600 in lost wholesale sales for this style alone.

10Working template

Replenishment worksheet: the reorder point column this lesson fills

The workbook's "Reorder point" sheet takes a style's own weekly sales rate and lead time, calculates expected sales across the lead time, adds a safety stock percentage, and flags the exact reorder point.

Delta Garments' own row records Order A's T-shirt at a 400-piece weekly rate, a 6-week lead time, and a 15% safety stock allowance, with the sheet calculating the 2,760-piece reorder point automatically.

Download the Replenishment worksheet (Excel)

11Check yourself

1. What two figures are multiplied together to calculate the expected sales a reorder point must cover, before the safety stock allowance is added?

2. A style sells at 250 pieces per week with an 8-week lead time and a 20% safety stock allowance. What is its reorder point?

3. Why must the reorder point trigger an order before stock actually reaches zero?

12Glossary
ENARFRTRMeaning
Weekly sales rateمعدل المبيعات الأسبوعيTaux de vente hebdomadaireHaftalık satış oranıThe average number of pieces of a style sold in one week, found by dividing total pieces sold by the number of weeks elapsed.
Lead timeالوقت الإجمالي للتنفيذDélai de productionTeslim süresiThe total time from a confirmed order to the goods reaching their destination.
Reorder pointنقطة إعادة الطلبPoint de recommandeYeniden sipariş noktasıThe quantity of stock remaining at which a Make to Stock buyer places its next production order against the standing forecast.
Safety stockمخزون الأمانStock de sécuritéEmniyet stoğuAn extra quantity of material planned on top of the bare requirement, to cover ordinary variation in a supplier's own delivery or a mill's own production run without stopping the cutting room.
Closing stockالمخزون الختاميStock de clôtureKapanış stokuThe stock a retailer holds at the very end of a given week, after that week's own intake and sales are counted.
Stock coverتغطية المخزونCouverture de stockStok kapsama süresiThe number of weeks a brand's current stock is expected to last before it runs out, given its normal sales rate.
13Next

Lesson 2.3: Calculating how much to replenish without creating excess stock

You now know how to set the reorder point that triggers a replenishment order. The next lesson calculates exactly how much to order once that trigger is reached. Back to the course map

14Ladder

RecognizeTell a reorder point apart from simply waiting until stock runs out.
ConnectSee how the weekly sales rate, the lead time, and the safety stock allowance combine into one trigger figure.
CompareTell a longer export lead time's higher reorder point apart from a shorter domestic lead time's lower one.
DecideTrigger a replenishment order the moment stock reaches its calculated reorder point.