This page is for an agent who tracks a retailer's own store-level sales after a first shipment has been trading for a few weeks, and must recommend how a second shipment should be allocated. At work, an agent who simply repeats the first shipment's own allocation ratios for every later shipment ignores real evidence that may already show some stores selling faster or slower than their own original estimate predicted. This lesson mainly teaches the information flow: it shows how sell-through rate, not the original selling-potential estimate, becomes the basis for a later shipment once real sales data exists.
Meridian Sourcing represents two European buyers and tracks Fairway Stores' own performance on Order A. Two weeks after the first 1,000-piece shipment reached Fairway Stores' four representative stores, split 400, 300, 200 and 100 pieces by estimated selling potential, real sales data now exists. Meridian Sourcing's own job is to check whether that original estimate still holds, or whether a 500-piece second shipment should be allocated differently because real store-level results have already moved away from the first shipment's own assumptions.
You need: lesson T21-C01-L02, which shows how to allocate a shipment across stores by their own selling potential.
By the end of this lesson you can:
Not covered here: building a complete allocation worksheet that combines every method from this course, covered in lesson T21-C01-L05.
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Sell-through rate | The share of stock actually sold within a planned period, used to judge whether a forecast was right. |
| Selling potential | An estimate of how much a specific store is likely to sell, usually built from that store's own past weekly sales rate for a similar style. |
| Store allocation | Splitting a confirmed shipment quantity across a retailer's own stores or shops, rather than shipping it all to one central point. |
| Weekly sales rate | The average number of pieces of a style sold in one week, found by dividing total pieces sold by the number of weeks elapsed. |
| Allocation ratio | Each store's own selling potential expressed as a share of the total selling potential across all stores receiving the shipment. |
| Sell-through-based reallocation | Adjusting a later shipment's own store-by-store split to match real sell-through, rather than repeating an earlier estimate unchanged. |
A first shipment is allocated by estimated selling potential because no real sales data exists yet for the new style. Once that shipment has traded for a few weeks, each store's own real sell-through rate becomes available, and it is more reliable than the original estimate because it reflects what customers in that specific store are actually buying rather than what a comparable style suggested they might buy. A hybrid allocation model uses the estimate for the first batch and switches to real sell-through for every shipment after it.
| What can differ | The shapes you will meet | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| A store trading exactly to its own original estimate | The flagship store's own real sell-through after two weeks roughly matches the pace its own selling-potential ratio predicted. | When real results confirm the estimate, the second shipment can keep the same allocation ratio with confidence. |
| A store trading faster than its own original estimate | A store allocated a smaller share, based on limited history, sells through faster than expected once real customers respond to the style. | A second shipment allocated on the old ratio alone would under-supply a store now proving it can sell more. |
| A store trading slower than its own original estimate | A store allocated a larger share, based on a comparable style, sells more slowly than that comparable style suggested it would. | Continuing to send that store the same large share on the next shipment risks building up unsold stock it cannot clear. |
| Domestic Make to Stock reorder cycle | A domestic retailer such as Cedar & Co. reviews real sell-through every week rather than only at fixed shipment milestones, adjusting reorders continuously. | An export hybrid model like Fairway Stores' own reviews sell-through at shipment milestones; a domestic Make to Stock model can review it far more often. |
Two weeks after the first shipment, Fairway Stores reports pieces sold at each of its four representative stores. Meridian Sourcing divides pieces sold by pieces allocated to find each store's own sell-through rate, then compares that rate across the four stores to see which ones are trading faster or slower than their own original estimate predicted.
At 70% sell-through after two weeks, the mid-size store is clearing stock far faster than the large store, which sold only 90 of its own 300 allocated pieces for a 30% sell-through rate. If Meridian Sourcing simply repeated the first shipment's own ratios, 20% to the mid-size store and 30% to the large store, the second shipment would under-supply the store proving the strongest real demand and over-supply the one proving the weakest.
The methodA common mistake is an agent or buyer assuming that because a selling-potential estimate was reasonable for a first shipment with no sales history, that same ratio should carry forward automatically to every shipment after it, without ever checking whether real sell-through still supports it. Order A's own first shipment relied on a comparable style precisely because no better information existed yet; once two weeks of real sales exist, continuing to allocate by the old estimate throws away exactly the better information the first shipment was always meant to eventually produce. This is not a small technical slip: it means every later shipment repeats the same guess indefinitely, even after the guess has already been proven wrong by real customers walking into real stores and either buying or not buying the style in front of them. An agent's own value in this hybrid model comes precisely from making that switch at the right moment, not from mechanically re-running the first calculation forever.
Once a style has been on sale for a while, the shops themselves tell you which of them are selling it fastest, far better than any earlier guess could. Divide what a shop has sold by what it was given to find how fast it is clearing stock. A shop clearing stock quickly deserves more of the next delivery; a shop with stock still sitting on the rail deserves less, whatever the very first estimate assumed. Keep checking real sales every time a new shipment is due, rather than trusting one early guess for the whole season.
Two weeks of real sales data are now in. Meridian Sourcing has calculated each store's own sell-through rate: flagship 55%, large 30%, mid-size 70%, small 45%. Fairway Stores is waiting for a recommendation before its second shipment leaves Delta Garments' factory.
Should the large store, which received the second-biggest first-shipment share, receive a similarly large share of the second shipment? Decide before opening the answer.
No, not on this evidence. The large store's own 30% sell-through is the slowest of the four stores, well below the average pace the first shipment's own estimate assumed.
First, the large store still holds 210 of its own original 300 pieces unsold after two weeks, more unsold stock than any other store in absolute terms.
Second, the mid-size store's own 70% sell-through shows real demand the original estimate did not fully capture, making it a stronger candidate for a larger share of the second shipment.
Meridian Sourcing recommends shifting the large store's own second-shipment share down and the mid-size store's own share up, reflecting what real sell-through now shows rather than repeating the first shipment's own ratios unchanged.
Using this lesson's own illustrative figures:
At Fairway Stores' own shop price of USD 19.90 per piece, under-supplying the mid-size store by 50 pieces risks USD 995 of sales it is well placed to make but cannot, because stock never arrived, while the large store, already sitting on 210 unsold pieces, would receive even more stock it has already shown it cannot sell through at the same pace.
Open the course workbook's "Sell-through tracker" sheet. Enter each store's own pieces sold and pieces allocated; the sheet then calculates each store's own sell-through rate and suggests a revised allocation ratio for the next shipment, ranked clearly from the fastest-selling store down to the slowest.
[Download the Store allocation worksheet](../../templates/T21-C01-store-allocation-worksheet.xlsx)
1. Why does real sell-through replace the original selling-potential estimate once it becomes available?
2. A store was allocated 250 pieces and has sold 200 of them. Another store was allocated 250 pieces and has sold 50. What does this tell an agent recommending the next shipment?
| EN | AR | FR | TR | Meaning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sell-through rate | معدل البيع الفعلي | Taux d'écoulement | Satış oranı | The share of stock actually sold within a planned period, used to judge whether a forecast was right. |
| Selling potential | إمكانية البيع | Potentiel de vente | Satış potansiyeli | An estimate of how much a specific store is likely to sell, usually built from that store's own past weekly sales rate for a similar style. |
| Store allocation | توزيع المحلات | Répartition entre magasins | Mağaza tahsisi | Splitting a confirmed shipment quantity across a retailer's own stores or shops, rather than shipping it all to one central point. |
| Weekly sales rate | معدل المبيعات الأسبوعي | Taux de vente hebdomadaire | Haftalık satış oranı | The average number of pieces of a style sold in one week, found by dividing total pieces sold by the number of weeks elapsed. |
| Allocation ratio | نسبة التوزيع | Ratio de répartition | Tahsis oranı | Each store's own selling potential expressed as a share of the total selling potential across all stores receiving the shipment. |
| Sell-through-based reallocation | إعادة توزيع مبنية على معدل البيع الفعلي | Réaffectation par taux d'écoulement | Satış oranına dayalı yeniden tahsis | Adjusting a later shipment's own store-by-store split to match real sell-through, rather than repeating an earlier estimate unchanged. |
You now know how to read sell-through to decide where a second shipment goes. The next lesson brings every method in this course together into one complete allocation worksheet. Back to the course map