Delta Garments supplies Cedar & Co., a domestic brand with 12 shops, under a hybrid arrangement: most of the volume runs against Cedar & Co.'s own Make to Stock forecast, with an additional Make to Order top-up run placed separately when demand justifies it. Deciding whether to recommend that top-up run means drawing on three separate kinds of evidence at once: what Cedar & Co.'s own sales history shows by size and store, whether a recent sales rise is a confirmed trend or a short-lived spike, and what a competitor's own range pattern suggests about where the wider market is heading. Each piece of evidence alone gives a partial answer; the mistake this lesson corrects is treating any one of the three as sufficient on its own, when a sound recommendation depends on reading all three together in one place.
You need: the method for reading a retailer's own sales history by size and by store (lesson 5.1), the method for confirming a genuine trend against a short-lived spike (lesson 5.2), and the method for studying a competitor's own range pattern without copying it (lesson 5.3).
By the end of this lesson you can:
Not covered here: the individual methods behind each section, covered in lessons 5.1 through 5.3, which this lesson assumes and brings together rather than re-teaching from scratch.
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Combined evidence | Sales history, a confirmed trend and a competitor pattern read together as one picture, rather than as separate, unrelated facts. |
| Agreeing evidence | A case where sales history, trend and competitor pattern all point in the same direction. |
| Conflicting evidence | A case where sales history, trend and competitor pattern point in different directions, requiring judgement to resolve. |
| Top-up run | An additional Make to Order production run placed on top of a standing Make to Stock forecast, when demand justifies it. |
| Hybrid business model | A supply arrangement combining a standing Make to Stock forecast with additional Make to Order runs placed separately. |
| Combined recommendation | The single production decision a worksheet's three sections are built to support. |
Sales history alone shows what has already happened; a confirmed trend alone shows whether a recent change is likely to continue; a competitor pattern alone shows what the wider market may be moving toward. None of the three, read in isolation, is enough to justify a production decision with real money behind it. Sales history without a trend check cannot tell a lasting shift from a one-off spike. A confirmed trend without competitor context cannot tell whether the wider market is moving the same way or Cedar & Co.'s own customer is moving alone. A competitor pattern without sales history cannot tell whether that pattern actually fits Cedar & Co.'s own customer at all. A worksheet that holds all three together, side by side, is what turns three partial answers into one that can support a real decision.
| What can differ | The shapes you will meet | Why it matters to you |
|---|---|---|
| Agreeing versus conflicting evidence | All three sections pointing the same way, like a confirmed trend for a style plus a competitor colour gap in the same direction, gives a strong case; sales history showing weak demand while a competitor pattern points the opposite way needs closer judgement. | Agreeing evidence supports a confident recommendation; conflicting evidence means weighing which source is more directly about your own customer. |
| Hybrid versus pure MTS or pure MTO | Delta Garments' hybrid arrangement with Cedar & Co. can add a separate MTO top-up run once evidence supports it, something a pure MTS forecast cycle cannot do mid-season and a pure MTO buyer like Fairway Stores can only apply to its next separate order. | A hybrid model gives more room to act on combined evidence quickly than either pure model alone. |
| Domestic versus export evidence speed | Cedar & Co.'s own domestic sales history and trend data arrive quickly through its own shops; competitor pattern study, drawing on public sources, can be gathered on a similar timeline regardless of market. | A domestic hybrid factory can often assemble all three sections faster than an export-only buyer relying on sell-through data that arrives after goods have landed. |
| Size of the gap between sections | A small gap between a confirmed trend and a competitor pattern is worth noting but rarely decisive; a large, consistent gap across all three sections is worth acting on with real production quantity. | The size of agreement or disagreement, not just its direction, should shape how large a production response is justified. |
Mona, Delta Garments' merchandiser, is asked to recommend whether Cedar & Co. should place an MTO top-up run on top of its standing 3,000-piece MTS forecast for the jeans style. She pulls three pieces of evidence: Cedar & Co.'s own sales history shows size M jeans selling faster than planned across all 12 shops; a trend check, following the method from lesson 5.2, confirms a genuine +30% rise holding across three separate weeks with no one-off cause; and a competitor pattern study, following the method from lesson 5.3, shows a generic competing retailer running a noticeably higher share of the same size and style in its own current range. All three point the same way, giving Mona a case stronger than any one piece of evidence could support alone.
The worked numberA merchandiser under time pressure can fill in all three sections and still fall back on whichever one happens to be freshest or easiest to explain, usually the sales history, since it is the most concrete. Doing so throws away the value of the other two sections entirely, and risks recommending a production quantity that a trend check would have shown was a short-lived spike, or that a competitor pattern would have flagged as moving against the wider market. The worksheet's whole purpose is to force all three sections to be read side by side before a number is written down, not to produce three separate answers and quietly pick a favourite.
Deciding how much extra stock to make should not rest on just one piece of evidence. What has already sold, whether a recent jump in sales is likely to continue, and what a competitor's own range suggests about the wider market, all answer a different part of the same question. When all three point the same way, that is a strong, confident case for making more. When they disagree, that is a sign to think harder rather than to guess. A worksheet that holds all three together in one place stops anyone from quietly picking the one answer that happens to be easiest, and forces the fuller picture to be looked at before real money is committed to a production run.
Omar, the owner of Cedar & Co., already saw the confirmed +30% trend from lesson 5.2 and is ready to approve the 900-piece top-up run on that figure alone. Mona asks him to wait for the completed worksheet, which also includes the competitor pattern section, before signing off.
Here is the completed worksheet summary Mona shares with Omar:
Should Omar approve the top-up run based on the trend figure alone, or wait for the full worksheet confirming all three sections agree? Decide before opening the answer.
Omar should wait for, and rely on, the full worksheet rather than the trend figure alone, even though both point to the same 900-piece quantity. Two facts decide this together.
First, the trend figure alone cannot rule out that Cedar & Co.'s own customer is moving in a direction the wider market is not, a gap only the competitor pattern section can address.
Second, the completed worksheet shows all three sections agreeing, sales history, trend check and competitor pattern all pointing the same way, which is the stronger, combined case this lesson's method is built to produce.
The final recommended quantity does not change between the two versions, but approving on the trend figure alone would have skipped a check that, in a different case, could have revealed the opposite competitor pattern and changed the recommendation entirely.
Framed on Delta Garments' own figures, the 900-piece top-up run itself costs the same regardless of how many worksheet sections supported it, but the confidence behind that number, and the risk of an undetected conflict, changes sharply.
The production quantity and its value do not change; what changes is whether that 8,820 is committed on the strength of one section or three agreeing ones, exactly the difference this course's combined method is built to make visible.
Open the Customer, trend and competitor worksheet linked below. Its four sheets, "Sales history," "Trend check," "Competitor pattern" and "Combined decision," carry forward exactly the sections this lesson brought together for Cedar & Co.'s jeans top-up run. The "Combined decision" sheet records whether the three sections agree or conflict, and the final recommended quantity. Fill in the yellow "Your style" columns across all four sheets with your own figures for practice.
[Download the Customer, trend and competitor worksheet](../../templates/T19-C05-customer-trend-competitor.xlsx)
Download the Customer, trend and competitor worksheet (Excel)
1. Omar is ready to approve the top-up run from the trend figure alone. Why does this lesson say he should wait for the full worksheet instead?
2. In the case followed in this lesson, how do the three worksheet sections relate to each other?
3. A different style shows a confirmed +20% trend, but a competitor pattern study shows the wider market moving away from that same style. What should the combined worksheet recommend?
| EN | AR | FR | TR | Meaning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Combined evidence | أدلة مجمّعة | Éléments combinés | Birleşik kanıt | Sales history, a confirmed trend and a competitor pattern read together as one picture, rather than as separate, unrelated facts. |
| Agreeing evidence | أدلة متوافقة | Éléments concordants | Uyumlu kanıt | A case where sales history, trend and competitor pattern all point in the same direction. |
| Conflicting evidence | أدلة متعارضة | Éléments contradictoires | Çelişkili kanıt | A case where sales history, trend and competitor pattern point in different directions, requiring judgement to resolve. |
| Top-up run | دفعة تكميلية | Production complémentaire | Ek üretim partisi | An additional Make to Order production run placed on top of a standing Make to Stock forecast, when demand justifies it. |
| Hybrid business model | نموذج أعمال هجين | Modèle économique hybride | Hibrit iş modeli | A supply arrangement combining a standing Make to Stock forecast with additional Make to Order runs placed separately. |
| Combined recommendation | توصية مجمّعة | Recommandation combinée | Birleşik öneri | The single production decision a worksheet's three sections are built to support. |
You now have a complete method for combining a retailer's own sales history, a confirmed trend and a competitor's own pattern into one production decision. The next course teaches what changes when a retailer moves from buying an existing range to developing its own private-label styles. Back to the course map